Why Brexit will be good for Ireland’s economy

The media is awash with scare-stories on the impending doom for the Irish economy in the wake of the UK electorate’s vote to leave the EU. There are constant reminders of the €1bn of trade that is carried out between the two countries every week. But it should be remembered this sum is not the amount that Ireland earns – it is the value of mutual exchange. Trade barriers between Ireland and the UK will result in losses to both sides.

Ireland saw growth in exports to the UK decline from 12% in 2015 to just 2% last year as a result of Brexit. This was mainly due to a drop in demand for food products driven by currency pressures. Brexit saw a weakening of sterling against the euro, making euro-denominated imports more expensive. However, the UK gets one-third of its food supply from Ireland so domestic industry cannot suddenly step in to plug shortages.

Numbers don’t lie

We are repeatedly told the UK is Ireland’s main trading partner, but what does this mean? Data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) shows the value of exports to the EU is actually far larger. And that is only accounting for goods, not services. Even breaking the bloc down by country, the value of our exports to Belgium is broadly similar to those with the UK. In March 2017, for example, the value of goods exported to the UK was €1,129m compared to €4,180m for the rest of the EU, including €1,388m for Belgium alone. These are official figures but they are rarely reported.

Irish goods exports

Now, you may be wondering how Ireland can do €1bn in trade with the UK a week but only sell goods worth €1,129m a month? As I stressed above, the €1bn represents the value of transactions between Ireland and the UK. And this includes services, which many commentators deride because they may have less value for the indigenous market than ‘hard’ goods. The €1,129m specifically refers to the value of goods Ireland sells to the UK, including food.

However, Ireland gets about a third of its total imports through the UK. Part of the explanation for this is that Ireland imports a sizeable amount of machinery and vehicles, which are brought in via Britain. So instead of avoiding transaction costs as part of the Eurozone, Ireland actually suffers a double-hit when our imports are converted from euro to sterling to euro. This is due to legacy issues whereby Ireland partnered with the UK on import deals made with other countries. Brexit should be an incentive for Ireland to negotiate its own import contracts and reduce transaction fees.

The chart below describes the shift in Ireland’s imports and exports in goods since 1973:

Irish goods exports

EU sales drive

One government agency that is taking a proactive approach to Brexit is Enterprise Ireland. It has committed to helping its members diversify away from the UK by growing export sales in the rest of the EU by 50% within three years. The agency’s CEO Julie Sinnamon said: “The fact that the growth of exports to the UK has slowed suggests that the impact of Brexit on Irish companies has already started.

“Companies cannot afford to wait until the Brexit negotiations conclude – they must act now. While diversifying from the UK might have been a desirable objective for Irish companies in the past, Brexit means that it is now an urgent imperative”.

Sinnamon’s basic point is that Ireland has been lazy about expanding its horizons – at least, perceptually. In reality, Ireland has been successful in propelling itself from a poor Western European economy into one of the wealthiest in the developed world since joining the EU in 1973.

Where we have failed to diversify is in agriculture. We have retained a post-colonial grip on the only industry the UK ever really relied on us for. Now we have an opportunity to uproot that dependence and forge opportunities across the EU and the rest of the world. And the government has already been quietly progressive in pushing Irish beef into the Chinese market.

Anyone for Apple?

The election of Emmanuel Macron as French president will raise pressure on harmonising corporate tax rates across the EU. However, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker is strongly opposed since his own country, Luxembourg, runs a similar approach to Ireland. But the corporate tax rate policy is targeted at US multinationals. And it is hard to quantify the value this has added to Ireland.

When official data showed the country’s GDP exploded by about 26% in 2015, due to corporate tax inversions, Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman described this as ‘leprechaun economics’. Countries only experience such exponential growth if they are recovering from a war or are incredibly poor. Put simply, this so-called growth in GDP did not find its way into Irish pockets, but the coffers of Apple are looking good.

The importance of the UK market has been overstated in recent decades. And there is still huge potential for Ireland to grow its opportunities across the EU, and the rest of the world, if it can get over its historical hang-up with Britain. The population of the EU is over half a billion, whereas the UK population is 65m. Why would Ireland forgo access to the biggest single market in the world to recreate a dependence on a country in which Irish citizens repeatedly complain of an 800-year struggle to break free from? The figures already show that Ireland is thriving in markets beyond the UK. Brexit will only drive this point home.

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To move on

Tiny fingers wrapped around a giant thumb

“What’s it like to be old?”

Old … old

I suppose I am

Old

“It’s sad,” I say

“Everyone you love disappears,

one by one.”

 

“Oh.

“And how does that feel?”

Little legs swing under the chair

“Like the oceans sucked into a vacuum.”

“Huh?”

“Like a hole in the heart.”

“Oh.

 

“Can you stop it?”

Yes, disappear too.

“No, but you can make it easier.”

Or harder.

“How?”

“By treasuring old photos and remembering.”

Reading old texts and emails, even letters

Reviving someone who is so readily gone.

 

“Are you going to disappear?”

Someday.

“Not for a very long time.”

“How do you know?”

I don’t.

“Because you and I have a long way to travel.”

And I would never leave you alone.

 

“But what if you do?”

“Disappear?”

Small lips tremble.

“Yes.”

“Then you will be brave and move on.”

“Move on?”

Forget about me.

“Find other ways to be happy.”

“But no one makes me as happy as you.”

“They will.”

 

Tiny grip unwraps

clutches the waist instead

head buried in the side

“I won’t ever let you go.”

Yes,

but one day you’ll have to.

 

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When liberalism becomes a modern affront to prosperity

Chitter chatter in a Dublin gallery. Leopard print dresses, frayed scarves, brogues. Wine glasses in hand. Family. Friends. Acquaintances. Opportunists, perhaps. A city ravaged only a decade ago by boom and bust, now bristles with smiles and craic. And at the centre of this revival, at least this night, is art.

In an era obsessed with economics, politics and alternative facts, so much of the western world has been swallowed up by banal arguments of destruction and decay owed to liberal thinking. As if valuing each other equally was plain wrong – an affront to growth in GDP. When news outlets are not bombarding social media feeds with celebrity junk, they are whipping up hysteria of economic and social doom. Immigrants are ‘stealing jobs, thinning the ethnic makeup of the nation’. Daring to infuse this culture with ‘the other’. Forcing so-called natives to retreat to their caves to vote for fragmentation, phobias, restrictions, in the vein hope of achieving an ever-elusive autonomy. An independence founded on exploration, conquest and genocide.

Society has been taught the price of anything, compromising the value of everything. An education is only worth what it buys. So much for freedom, liberty and fraternity. If it cannot be measured in American dollars, then it cannot be measured. And if cannot be measured, it cannot be valued, and so has no purpose in society at all.

Capitalism has generated gross prosperity across the developed world. The gap between rich and poor may be widening, but everyone has been awarded more. Yet the consequence is that society only views gains in monetary or commercial terms. To the detriment of philanthropy and in servitude to greed. And when financial chaos erupts, one of the first victims is creative arts. Reduced funding for ‘soft’ subjects that fail to please the greenback. Young people are steered towards science, business and math, taught that talents are binary – if you’re good at equations you couldn’t possibly want to paint or dance. What would be the value in that?

But take a stroll through a Dublin gallery. Discover an artist. Lose your inhibitions in brush strokes, shapes and frames. Be reminded of humanity. That eminent force that drives us to charity. Because in all the ways that a revenue-driven attitude separates us from morality, the paint, the twirl, the word, draw us right back to what is important. That is, our shared experience of the world. Regardless of our colour, religion, gender, nationality. We are a spectrum of diversity still unified by biology. This is our earth, our family, our community. And we can watch things fall apart through apathy, or we can extend a palm in a gesture of nobility.

 

gallery

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Brexit deal must be ‘inferior’ to membership to protect EU borders

Geography determines our neighbours, creating historical and cultural links too. Yet UK prime minister Theresa May seems to believe an exit from the EU will allow her country to quit the continent altogether. She also ignores that small neighbour to the west, which is firmly committed to the bloc. The UK is thus surrounded by Europe even if a large swathe of its population no longer identifies as European.

May’s attempt at setting the British identity apart from European is dishonest. Where does she think the term Anglo-Saxon came from? There are no authentic or pure identities. Europe is a melting pot of cultural idiosyncrasies and linguistic multiplicity. These are superficial differences that fail to deny the resounding truth that people are basically the same. But that is not an argument politicians want to accept since it dilutes their power.

A weak Europe

Brexit looks set to generate hostility across the continent. Leaders talk about balanced outcomes but that is impossible since a successful Brexit will spur other countries to leave. The Maltese prime minister Joseph Muscat is right when he says the Brexit deal “necessarily needs to be inferior to membership”. The UK electorate may have voted leave to secure its borders but it must now accept the steps the EU is forced to take to protect its borders too.

Brexit is disappointing but the dissolution of the European bloc would be far more brutal for global stability. It would hand a Trump-led US even more power and responsibility. And while many Brexiters may think a diminished Europe would lead to the revival of the British Empire, that is a misguided and questionable ambition. Colonialism was not welcomed by its victims.

Rogue media

As Britain negotiates its exit, anti-EU rhetoric is set to soar. Media companies will use Brexit to sell ad space through news decrying the bloc as a vampire feeding off its members’ resources. There will be stories highlighting the domestic industries that have weakened under EU membership. But these stories deliberately overlook the net benefits driven by the strengthening of other domestic industries. In Britain, the Murdoch media played a huge role in Brexit by persistently publishing misleading content on the damaging effects of EU immigration. A similar phenomenon could occur across the rest of the continent as populism continues to take hold.

Brexiters should tread carefully in seeking to destabilize the EU. May argues the bloc ignored the diverse needs of its member nations. But Westminster has shown no regard for the needs of its own member nations. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain and are honest about being net beneficiaries. That goes beyond funding and grants since entry into the single market enabled these regional economies to grow. The loss of the EU market will result in larger English subsidies for the other UK nations. Brexit may simply lead to a debate on the validity of the UK since this is just another union. And a union may only be as strong as its weakest link.

 

theresa_may_-_caricature

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When life tends to zero

Life deals us all a finite horizon

With a probability of exit

tending to one as life tends to a hundred

 

But when the probability is refined

By sickness or emergency

There is an ominous approach of death

 

Where as family, friends and loved ones

Without thinking too darkly,

Too deeply, or too profoundly

 

It is incumbent upon us

To let it be known

That we love you

 

With our whole hearts

Bodies and souls,

 

To infinity,

 

as life tends to zero.

 

galaxy-1837306_1280

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Trump win proves people best swayed by vitriolic bullshit

The progressive world is aghast at the election of renowned business mogul Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States. International stability has been kicked in the groin. Russia has been handed a free pass to carve up Europe and the Middle East without fear of reprimand. And Latin America has been notionally sliced off from its northern neighbours.

As Europe looks on in disbelief, many are asking how a man so famously prejudiced could become the most powerful person on the planet. But it is symptomatic of American disillusionment with capitalism. And specifically, of older voters cynicism towards globalisation and the perception that “foreigners” are stealing American jobs despite the fact the US was built by European immigrants.

Ignorant expertise

Pundits spent the better part of Tuesday discussing the pending Clinton victory. Their speculation was then thwarted by Trump’s resounding win and suddenly everyone is now an expert on the disenchantment of the American people. But where was this expertise when Trump and Clinton took to the campaign trail earlier this year? It is too late to take heed of the thriving bigoted vein that runs through the States. This should not have been underestimated in the first place.

Any European who has ventured past New York and LA into the depths of America knew this outcome was possible – even probable. In many ways, it was more shocking that this overtly conservative electorate voted for a black man in 2008 and again in 2012. That was seen as a turning point in American social attitudes. But the vote for Trump is a solid step back into a 1950s-style society where non-whites are dehumanized and women are commodified.

Legitimising hatred  

There has been a lot of comparisons made between today’s US and 1930s Germany; ideas that Trump is the next Hitler. Yet this is very likely an overstatement. A Trump presidency is dangerous for global stability and is most certainly retrograde, but it is not as phenomenal in the context of US politics as Europeans might wish to believe. The world did survive George W Bush’s presidency (albeit at the cost of Iraq).

There is no doubt the Trump victory threatens to legitimise prejudice but his win also demonstrates how this bigotry underlies large swathes of American society. He built a mandate based on racism, sexism and separatism, in full knowledge of the power of divisiveness. It did not matter that Trump’s policies were vacuous because in an era of populism, people are better swayed by vitriolic bullshit than commonsense. And so, the US will keep rolling onwards (though clearly not upwards).

Warning for Europe

The lesson for a Europe plagued by Brexit, attitudes of anti-immigration and rising skepticism towards the EU, is obvious: stability requires youthful optimism, tolerance and integration. To avoid following in the footsteps of our American cousins, Europeans need to harmonise more firmly and more faithfully.

The US has just demonstrated that societies ebb and flow between progression and regression. Europeans must then hope to defy that pattern by embracing cultural complexities and accepting that communities are not one-dimensional descriptions of societies but rather, a grand mix of all that makes the world a better place.

 

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Powerless to act, or acting powerless?

The Irish Anti-War Movement organised a protest against the bombing of Syria outside Dáil Éireann last night. The severity of the situation cannot be overstated, yet the turnout was low. Is it true that we are helpless to protect our fellow citizens of the world? According to UK prime minister Theresa May, “If you believe you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere.” But that is exactly the attitude promoting  xenophobia, nationalist extremism and outright racism across parts of the rich world right now.

There are complaints that the media is failing to report on violence across the Middle East because of a western bias. And there is a western bias but that is down to us. This week’s The Economist describes it as ‘The Business of Outrage‘. Shrewd entrepreneurs are making huge profits off the back of anger. They try to convince communities that society is in tatters and that the Apocalypse is just around the corner, despite hard evidence that Western societies have never had it so good. We see this most evidently in US presidential candidate Donald Trump. His entire raison d’être is to convince voters that America is crumbling and their only chance of survival is his bigoted-style of politics.

Media outlets are not shunning stories about wars in the Middle East because of censorship, although it can seem like it at times. We live in a digital era where it is instantly possible to analyse what news people are consuming. The primary revenue stream for media companies is advertising. And the only way to attract advertisers is by proving a strong newspaper circulation or more relevantly, website traffic. The sad truth is many people increasingly prefer fluff, so media companies are moving further from news and into entertainment.

If we are serious about improving our societies, we must start by taking an active role within them. The first step is to keep ourselves informed so that we can make appropriate decisions about the direction of our futures. After all, public demonstrations have furthered the rights of women, ethnic minorities and the LGBT. But if our concern is mere empty words, we’re as well to keep our mouths shut and accept that there is no better.

 

 

 

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